🗳️ Ballot Box 08/05/26

Election night is fun for a lot of reasons in the newsroom: There's pizza, a frantic constant refreshing of the Secretary of State website as the clock hits 7:57 p.m., and the rush of quickly writing returns so readers not clicking refresh have an idea of what's happened between when they dropped their ballots off and when results come in.

But it's also fun because I get to learn if I'm right.

Don't let any political junky tell you they don't like being right about election results. And I'm not talking about the horse-race polling, since I think we've learned pretty well those aren't reliable. I'm talking about the general sense from talking with voters about the races, going to various town halls and memorizing stump speeches to see how they change over time, and friendly gossip from those in the candidates’ circles.

Sometimes I pay attention to endorsements, but it's not a factor in my political math. It's a lot easier to be right in local elections than statewide races.

Below I’ll break down what happened Tuesday night and whether my political radar is working correctly. For a fuller picture of what preliminary returns mean for Whatcom County, I wrote an analysis published today looking at the 42nd Legislative Senate and Prosecuting Attorney races. For numbers-oriented readers, a table of Whatcom County primary election results can be found here, while Skagit County results can be found here. More election coverage from CDN can be found here. (Check back at 5 p.m. today for updated numbers.) Results will be certified Aug. 18.

(By the way: As of Tuesday night, 25% of registered Whatcom County voters turned in their ballots. That's about equal to the state voter ballot return statistics. The big civic winner: Garfield County — the least populous county in WA — with 54% of registered voters turning their ballots in.)

I've had my eye on this race since last summer when I started getting murmurs that Jesse Corkern was going to challenge chief criminal deputies Erik Sigmar and Dona Bracke.

If you'd asked me in December 2024 who was going to win the race, I would've said Sigmar. He's current prosecutor Eric Richey's protege and a continuation of the status quo established by David McEachran. But an office scandal in early 2025 tarnished Sigmar's star.

Up until mid-April, I thought we were heading for a Corkern-Bracke matchup. Then the dark horse appeared (every good election cycle needs one). Public defender, Blaine school board member and volunteer baseball coach Ryan Swinburnson filed. That threw my election math off.

Each candidate provides their own take on where the prosecutor's office needs to go, but could they convince voters? Sigmar pushed for better diversion opportunities for defendants, in line with the work he's doing on the upcoming jail project. Bracke and Corkern want the office to retain lawyers (CDN found that between 2019 and 2026, the office experienced 70% staff turnover) and to get it back on track. Swinburnson comes with an outsider perspective on how the office doesn't work and wants to expand recovery court options.

As of last week, I couldn't really tell you what was going to happen. I had a feeling Swinburnson would capture the county vote, paving the way to the general election, while Bracke, Corkern and Sigmar would fight for the Bellingham and Ferndale votes.

My crystal ball prediction: Swinburnson and Corkern with Bracke a percentage point behind.

Reality check: Pretty darn close, if I do say so myself. Swinburnson cruised ahead with early results Tuesday night, showing a nearly 40% lead. The next closest was Corkern with 21.65% and Bracke, not too far behind, sitting at 19.98%. Bracke’s and Corkern's positions could flip depending on the next round of ballot tallies.

As I said in my first newsletter sent in May, this race has been on my mind since Sen. Sharon Shewmake announced her retirement (please enjoy your family time!). Erika Creydt was a shoo-in, running as a Republican and getting the county vote. Ryan Bowman was a non-viable candidate, running with almost no financial support and only a dream of making it into the primary.

This is where things get interesting: Progressive voters had their pick between Lummi Nation School science teacher Eamonn Collins and Port of Bellingham Commissioner Michael Shepard. Shepard is Shewmake-endorsed and has the legislative chops (even if the port is not the Washington State Legislature). Collins, on the other hand, could make the argument to tax-minded progressives that he has a plan to ensure the uber-rich in our slice of the northwest pay their fair share (millionaire's tax anyone?)

My crystal ball prediction: Creydt vs. Shepard, with him eking by because of establishment backing.

My there's-no-way-in-hell-this-could-happen prediction: Collins and Shepard beating back Creydt and forcing a reckoning among liberals in the 42nd about how far progressive policy can go (please see the current race happening in Seattle between sitting Sen. Jamie Peterson and leftist-Mamdani candidate Hannah Sabio-Howell).

Reality check: Creydt sailed through to the general Tuesday night. Shepard and Collins are separated by less than 700 votes, with Shepard leading.

It's time to admit that while I've been super excited about expansion, since it is a once-in-a-generation seismic shift of a governmental body, I haven't been as tuned into the races for the newly created Districts 4 and 5. There were 12 candidates in both races, and that's a lot of people to keep tabs on. For my math, I tend to pay attention to who's coming in person to port commission meetings and if they answered my phone call. Guest stars at port commission have included: Samantha Cruz-Mendoza, Paul Burrill, Tor Benson, Chris Elder and Todd Lagestee.

My crystal ball prediction: Cruz-Mendoza and Burrill for District 4; Chris Elder and Todd Lagestee for District 5.

Reality check: Big fat 50% on this. Burrill and Elder both made it through to the general, according to returns posted on Tuesday night. For the second-place finishers, in came Tor Benson for District 4 and Sean Ensley for District 5. But Lagestee trails by 300 votes, so never say die in District 5.

A handful of levies across Whatcom and Skagit counties had mixed results on Tuesday night. Glacier Fire & Rescue received the nod from 70% of voters to lift its levy lid to continue funding emergency services. District 1 Fire District, serving Everson, Nooksack, Deming and the Nooksack Indian Tribe, saw voters reject the levy. North Whatcom Fire & Rescue could be inching toward a levy lid lift approval, after three failures, with 52% of voters saying yes, as of Tuesday night.

In Skagit County, the Hospital District 304 levy lid lift looks unlikely to succeed, while Darrington School District overwhelmingly passed its levy. The jury is still out on whether voters in Fire District 8, serving Lyman, Hamilton and Sedro-Woolley, will pass their levy lid lift.

In Skagit County, Joe Burns will face Sen. Keith Wagoner in the November election for county commissioner. Burns was appointed earlier this year to take outgoing commissioner Lisa Janicki's seat.

I'd be remiss not to mention the Supreme Court races. You can find a better breakdown about those races from Washington State Standard and the Washington Observer. (Incoming CDN Editor in Chief, Jonathan Martin, has diligently been following the "Supremes" race, and I hope he provides some commentary before the general election for our readers.)

On Monday, we closed our submissions for this year's Citizens Agenda process. Thank you to everyone who sent questions and demands of the candidates. On Friday, we'll publish — in print and online — the list of questions folks can vote on. We take the reader-favored questions to candidates, and their answers will be included in our Voter Guide in October. Reporters also use some of these questions to guide our own reporting.

Subscriber sneak peek: Vote here for your top questions.

In early October, we'll host our annual election town hall at Sehome High School. If you have topics you want the candidates to touch on, email [email protected].

Last month, I asked about the Whatcom County “I Voted” sticker contest. Many of you said you could pass on the sticker. As one reader put it: “It has less to do with memorabilia than promoting pride in civic engagement.” In the CDN newsroom, we seemed to have more people interested in sloth stickers than the raspberry.

Politico: Outside our greater Washington, there are Senate races that could be a tipping point this November for who controls what some senators call “the mature chambers.” But in Montana and South Dakota, the Democratic establishment is asking two candidates to withdraw so as not to split votes with moonshot Independent candidates. In South Dakota, the Democratic candidate dropped out Tuesday.

The New Republic: The upcoming IndyCar race in Washington, D.C., as part of the Freedom 250 celebrations, has been a topic of conversation in my family for the last year. For better or for worse, the course goes through the streets of the capital. But as Timothy Noah lays out, the vibrations from 27 cars topping out at 175 mph could damage some of our nation's artifacts and murals. Having gone to my share of IndyCar races — most recently in Arizona and again this weekend in Portland — and listened to car alarms blaring during the race, there might be some plaster cracking in those D.C. museums.

NPR Embedded with KUOW and The Seattle Times: Six years ago, 16-year-old Antonio Mays Jr. was shot dead in the middle of the night after gunshots rang out in the Capitol Hill Occupation Protest (CHOP) during the George Floyd uprisings. Sydney Brownstone and Will James in "We Keep Us Safe," an eight-part series, retrace the investigation into the shooting, who Antonio was and why protesters staying in CHOP that night didn’t come forward. Brownstone and James also uploaded the public records and evidence they gathered in the course of reporting the series for people to examine.